diff_of_means ratio_of_sd monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means sign_correlation qqplot_mae acf_mae extremogram_mae
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 1.50% 0.900 0.848 0.513 4.417 0.131 0.031
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -2.67% 0.910 0.843 0.504 3.645 0.144 0.043
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -5.73% 0.912 0.842 0.501 3.491 0.126 0.031
xgboost.cesm2.ssp245 -18.64% 0.822 0.806 0.516 9.171 0.052 0.022
xgboost.cesm2.ssp370 -21.16% 0.802 0.782 0.510 10.409 0.056 0.019
xgboost.cesm2.ssp585 -21.50% 0.805 0.796 0.510 10.576 0.064 0.018
lstm.ec_earth3.ssp434 27.54% 0.777 0.321 0.489 14.217 0.472 0.092
cnn.cesm2.ssp245 28.23% 0.850 0.807 0.496 13.923 0.148 0.048
lstm.cesm2.ssp585 28.33% 0.729 0.285 0.489 14.658 0.421 0.065
lstm.cesm2.ssp245 28.47% 0.770 0.322 0.493 15.001 0.429 0.081
lstm.cesm2.ssp370 28.75% 0.771 0.323 0.503 14.569 0.455 0.111
cnn.ec_earth3.ssp434 28.95% 0.880 0.850 0.494 14.306 0.200 0.030
cnn.cesm2.ssp370 29.91% 0.870 0.883 0.510 14.874 0.104 0.044
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 30.51% 0.855 0.828 0.499 15.125 0.206 0.033
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 30.90% 0.871 0.835 0.505 15.358 0.221 0.025
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 31.59% 0.774 0.271 0.485 16.035 0.480 0.090
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 33.16% 0.846 0.288 0.499 16.703 0.512 0.065
cnn.cesm2.ssp585 35.59% 0.784 0.809 0.494 17.571 0.103 0.028
xgboost.ec_earth3.ssp434 -35.78% 0.793 0.753 0.497 17.602 0.143 0.034
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 36.09% 0.851 0.305 0.504 17.812 0.530 0.112
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 36.59% 0.889 0.850 0.504 18.076 0.217 0.031
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 -60.25% 0.754 0.785 0.503 29.644 0.148 0.021
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -63.73% 0.773 0.800 0.515 31.354 0.163 0.021
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -70.04% 0.763 0.823 0.484 34.460 0.105 0.020
nv.cesm2.ssp245 -72.90% 0.780 0.824 0.516 35.866 0.073 0.023
nv.cesm2.ssp370 -76.42% 0.794 0.823 0.521 37.598 0.081 0.029
nv.cesm2.ssp585 -76.44% 0.781 0.841 0.518 37.611 0.076 0.025
nv.ec_earth3.ssp434 -85.80% 0.755 0.796 0.492 42.215 0.094 0.020

Time series of the first days

Distribution of daily values by month

QQ Plot

Distribution of the undownscaled value on days with estimated extremes values.

On the x-axis we have the daily mean (standardized). It says Undownscaled value, but is the daily mean after the downscaling. A good idea is to plot the original undownscaled value.

The purpose of this plot is to illustrate the distribution of P(undownscaled value | we predicted an extreme). This is useful because it reveals how much information we can recover concerning extreme events. If the distribution is skewed to the right, it suggests that we’re predicting extreme values only when extreme values have already occurred. Conversely, if the lower tail of the distribution resembles the reanalysis data, it indicates that we can capture short-duration extremes (e.g., brief periods of heavy rainfall, such as an intense downpour lasting an hour before stopping).

Autocorrelogram

Extremogram